Is the 3,000 Strikeout Club Soon To Be Closed?
An evaluation of candidates
They just might be the last…at least, for a long time.
3,000 strikeouts.
Yes, membership in that exclusive Major League Baseball club may be closing for the foreseeable future.
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19 pitchers in MLB history have attained 3,000 strikeouts in their career. 14 of the 19 are in the Hall of Fame. Of the five who are not, two are still active (Max Scherzer 3,367, Justin Verlander 3,342), two are ostracized because of steroid suspicion (Roger Clemens 4,672) and political views (Curt Schilling 3,116), and one is eligible in 2024 (C.C. Sabathia 3,093).
So, yes, 3,000 strikeouts almost assuredly presents an open door to Cooperstown.
Of the active players, who has the best chance to reach that exulted threshold?
If he pitches in 2024—currently, a free agent—Zach Greinke will most certainly surpass 3,000 strikeouts. Currently, the much traveled righthander—six teams in a 20-year MLB career—has 2,979 Ks.
While Greinke’s strikeouts per nine innings ratio has dropped precipitously in the last three seasons—2023 6.1, 2022 4.8, and 2021 6.3—after never falling below 7.5 in any of the previous 14 seasons, 21 whiffs are readily attainable should a team sign the interested Orlando, Florida native—no retirement announcements yet—for the 2024 season. Given his 2-15 record, 5.06 ERA, and 1.0 WAR in 2023, the phone may not ring to offer the opportunity to enter the exclusive club for the 40-year old former Cy Young Award winner.
Greinke is not the only pitcher knocking on the 3,000 K door.
Clayton Kershaw concluded another injury-riddled 2023 season with 2,944 career strikeouts. However, like Greinke, the three-time Cy Young Award winner is unsigned for the 2024 season. Unlike Greinke, when healthy, the lanky lefthander is still pitching at a near elite level.
His 2023 ERA (2.46) is consistent with his career mark (2.48)
The 6.8 hits per 9 innings aligns with his career standard (6.8); and
9.4 strikeouts per 9 innings is only a shade below his lifetime threshold (9.8).
If the 2014 NL MVP is signed for 2024, 3,000 strikeouts is imminent. His likely $20 million price tag and his inability to stay healthy (the lifetime Dodger last appeared in 30+ games in 2015) may dissuade an aggressive market for his services.
Beyond Greinke and Kershaw, of the next 21 active leaders in career strikeouts, realistically, only one has a reasonable shot at joining the club.
All 21 are 30 years of age or older; 10 are 35 or older. A few are retired or unsigned (Adam Wainwright, Steven Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner), several are shells of their former selves (Johnny Cueto, Ian Kennedy, Corey Kluber), many are solid compilers who have reached the list through longevity (Lance Lynn, Charlie Morton, Yu Darvish).
The only pitcher with an invitation pending? Gerrit Cole.
The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner sits at 2,152, 848 away from the threshold. Since his January 13, 2018 trade by Pittsburgh to Houston for Michael Feliz, Jason Martin, Colin Moran and Joe Musgrove, the righthander has averaged 265 strikeouts in the last five full MLB seasons. Cole has averaged a stunning 11.9 strikeouts per 9 innings during that span. If he is able to maintain that pace, Cole will join the 3,000 strikeout club early in the 2027 season.
However, given the decline in strikeouts per 9 innings in 2023 to 9.6, his lowest since his final season with Houston in 2017, Cole may require a bit more time to reach the rarified K atmosphere.
Although Cole is signed through 2028 at $36 million per season, Cole has an opt-out option after the 2024 season. The Yankees may void that opt-out by guaranteeing $36 million for the 2029 season.
By far, though, Cole is the only active pitcher with anything resembling a reasonable chance to join the club, particularly given the overall reduction in innings pitched by individual starters over the last several MLB seasons.
After the 2019 season, at age 30, Chris Sale had compiled 2,007 strikeouts—the jeweler was sharpening the engraver to etch his name on the 3,000 strikeout community wall. Unfortunately, the hard throwing lefthander has traveled an injury-induced odyssey since August 2019—shortly after inking a five-year contract extension with the Red Sox.
Elbow inflammation cut short his 2019 campaign. Tommy John surgery sidelined the the former Florida Gulf Coast University hurler in 2020. A rib fracture, a broken right wrist, a broken pinkie finger, a stint on the COVID-19 injured list, and shoulder inflammation limited him in 2021 through 2023 to a total of 149 innings, recording 182 strikeouts. While he maintained an impressive 11.0 strikeouts to 9 innings ratio—consistent with his active players leading career rate of 11.1—the volume was simply not present to race toward the rare threshold.
Sale recently signed a two-year, $38 million deal that includes an $18 million club option for the 2026 season with the Atlanta Braves. Unfortunately, at 34, even if Sale is able to maintain his career strikeout pace and gain 150 to 200 innings per season, the window has closed for Sale to join the 3K K club.
Cole is the sole hope for a new entrant in the club….and, that might be the last for a long, long time.
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great decution to land on Cole as the best candidate. that Strasburg is already 34 might be the most mind boggling part of the list.