Just How Difficult Is Winning a League Championship?
The overhead projector illuminates the challenge
In the aftermath of the 49ers’ heartbreaking 25-22 loss to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII, much ado about something has been scribed about Kyle Shanahan’s ability to win the big one. Can he?
Maybe, we are asking the wrong question.
Maybe, our perspective needs enlightenment—and, of course, data.
Maybe, we are failing to recognize just how difficult winning a league championship is.
To paraphrase legendary stand up comic and political pundit, Will Durst, “Let’s go to the overheard projector! The overhead projector does not lie, people!”
SHALL WE DANCE?
Currently, five major professional leagues occupy the North American sports landscape.
Major League Baseball - 30 teams
National Football League - 32 teams
National Basketball Association - 30 teams
National Hockey League - 32 teams
Major League Soccer - 29 teams
153 teams over five major leagues translates into, well, five championships annually. That means 3.3% of all teams win a league championship in a given year. 96.7% do not. 5 hoist a trophy, 148 do not. With ever expanding playoffs, by far, more teams than ever—71—will lose their final post-season game than win it. And, 77 will not even qualify.
Getting to the post-season dance is hard. Winning the silver ball is even harder.
FRAMING THE DISCUSSION
Despite falling in Super Bowl LVIII, San Francisco is one of the most successful post-season franchises in the annals of professional sports. The 49ers have:
Won the most post-season games in NFL history (39).
Fashioned a .609 post-season winning percentage, second only to the Patriots (.627).
Lifted 5 Lombardi Trophies, tied for third all-time.
Appeared in 8 Super Bowls, tied for second all-time.
Crafted a 38% post-season appearances to years active ratio, fourth all-time (Dallas 56%, Minnesota 49%, Cleveland 40%).
Participated in the most conference championship games, 19. (8-11 overall) (Steelers 16, Patriots 15, Cowboys 14, Rams 11, Raiders 11).
Most NFL franchises would love to boast that level of success.
And, most franchises across the five major sports would gladly post that resume online with pride.
To shape perspective, let’s review the overhead projector, league by league.
THE OTHER 34% - NFL
Reviewing the NFL gridiron, the 58 (or, is that LVIII?) Super Bowls have been won by 20 franchises. Of those 20 franchises, 7 have won 34 championship contests, 59%, with the Steelers and Patriots boasting six each.
12 franchises have not won a Super Bowl, and, perhaps, stunningly, four have never participated in the season-ending match in its near six-decade existence. Eight of the 12 on-lookers have been active since the Super Bowl commenced in 1967 (well, the first one was actually called the unwieldy AFL–NFL World Championship Game. Super Bowl was not officially so named until the ground-breaking third game between the NFL’s Baltimore Colts and the AFL’s New York Jets in 1969—Super Bowl III).
Let’s look at the eight who have played in the Super Bowl but, not won the sleek, silver trophy.
Key: (Years active/Post-season appearances/Post-season games won/Conference championships won/Super Bowls won)
Arizona Cardinals (104/11/7/1/0)
Regardless of location—Illinois, Missouri or Arizona—or designation—Chicago, St. Louis, Phoenix, or Arizona—in their 104 seasons, the Cardinals have crafted the fifth-worst post-season record (.412, 7-10) and the worst post-season appearance ratio—11% (11/104)—in NFL history. Only one other franchise is below 20%. Yeah, see below.
The Cardinals lone Super Bowl appearance resulted in a heart-breaking 27-23 loss to Pittsburgh in Super Bowl XLIII in 2009. The franchise’s only two NFL championships occurred in 1925 and 1947 when the home base was Chicago. And, yes, the 76-year championship drought is the longest in NFL annals.Atlanta Falcons (58/14/10/2/0)
Of the eight on this list who have played in the Super Bowl, no team had a better chance to exit this list than the Falcons. Holding a 28-3 lead with a win probability of 99.7% in the third quarter of Super Bowl LI, Tom Brady led the greatest comeback in the game’s history, resulting in a 34-28 overtime victory for the Patriots. Atlanta lost in the divisional playoffs the next season and have not won more than 7 games in the six seasons since.Buffalo Bills (64/23/19/4/0)
The Heartbreak Kids of Super Bowl participants. The Bills played in a record four consecutive Super Bowls from 1990-1993 with the best chance to win one of the four occurring in Super Bowl XXV, the first of the four. However, Scott Norwood’s 47-yard field goal attempt with no time left on the clock infamously went wide right.
Although the Bills have knocked on the door with five consecutive post-season appearances, Buffalo is still trying to get back to the big dance for the first time in more than 30 years.Carolina Panthers (29/8/9/2/0)
While Carolina is the only one of the 12 on this list to boast an above .500 post-season record (9-8), the Panthers were beaten in both of their 21st century SB appearances, 32-29, in Super Bowl XXXVIII (yeah, the Patriots) and 24-10 to Denver—Peyton Manning’s final game—in Super Bowl L. Very respectable for a franchise lacking the longevity of the others on this list. Still, no Lombardis.Cincinnati Bengals (56/16/10/3/0)
Although the Falcons blew the best opportunity, collectively, no team has come closer to tapping the Super Bowl win column than the AFL expansion franchise from 1968. The Bengals have lost their three appearances by a collective 12 points—26-21 to San Francisco in Super Bowl XVI, 20-16 to the 49ers in SB XXIII and 23-20 to the Rams in LVI.Los Angeles Chargers (64/20/12/1/0)
Despite boasting one of the richest resumes of Pro Football Hall of Fame talent—Players: Lance Alworth, Ron Mix, Dan Fouts, Kellen Winslow, Charlie Joiner, Fred Dean, Junior Seau, and LaDainian Tomlinson. Coaches: Sid Gillman, Don Coryell. GM: Bobby Beathard—the Chargers have appeared in only one Super Bowl, where the Southern California squad was clearly outmatched by one of the 49ers’ best teams ever, losing Super Bowl XXIX, 49-26.Minnesota Vikings (63/31/21/4/0)
While the Vikings’ post-season appearance ratio is third all-time at 49%, Minnesota has struggled when they enter the Super Bowl sock hop gym. The Vikings have lost the most post-season games in NFL history (31) and sport the 4th worst post-season win percentage at .404 (14-31). Minnesota appeared in four Super Bowls from 1969 to 1976, including three in four years, without a victory.Tennessee Titans (64/25/17/1/0)
Despite a respectable post-season appearance rate (9th at 39%), whether in Houston or Tennessee and whether known as the Oilers or the Titans, the franchise’s lone Super Bowl opportunity will be forever indelibly stitched to Kevin Dyson’s outstretched arm lying inches short of the goal line with six seconds remaining in the Rams’ 23-16 Super Bowl XXXIV triumph. The franchise won the first two AFL championships in 1960 and 1961.
Now for the pro football futile four.
Key: (Years active/Post-season appearances/Post-season games won/Conference championships won/Super Bowls won)
Cleveland Browns (75/30/17/0/0)
Once one of the most successful post-season franchises in football history—Cleveland won all four All-America Football Conference championships from 1946 to 1949 and appeared in the next six NFL championship games, winning three from 1950 to 1955—the Browns’ are the poster child for Super Bowl futility.
Since appearing in three AFC conference championship games from 1986 to 1989—losing all three to Denver and future Hall of Fame quarterback John Elway—the Midwest association has ventured to the post-season only four times, never advancing beyond the division round.Detroit Lions (94/18/9/0/0)
Since winning the NFL title in 1957, Detroit has appeared in only two conference championship games in the ensuing 67-year span. The Lions lost two division playoff games and nine wild card games during that period, including eight wild card appearances between 1993 and 2016. Any wonder Motor City went turbo when the long-time NFL franchise reached the NFC title game and sported a 24-7 halftime lead against San Francisco this year. Alas, not to be…yet.Houston Texans (22/7/5/0/0)
The NFL’s most recent expansion franchise does not possess anything close to the lineage of the others eleven Super Bowl aspirants, the Texans’ seven post-season appearances have never passed beyond the division round.Jacksonville Jaguars (29/8/8/0/0)
Few franchises in league history enjoyed such a rich start with the Jaguars joining the post-season guest list in seasons 2 through 5 from 1996 through 1999, losing twice in AFC conference championship games. However, required another 23 seasons for the Florida team to match those four initial appearances.
Yes, these 12 envy the achievement of the other 20—a Super Bowl victory.
THE OTHER 34% - MLB
In 2023, the Texas Rangers exited the World Series absent club, capturing the first crown in the franchise’s 63-year existence. That leaves five Major League Baseball franchises without a World Series title. 25 clubs have captured the sport’s championship with six franchises—Yankees, Cardinals, Athletics, Red Sox, Giants, and Dodgers—annexing 60% (71) with the remaining 19 clubs winning the remaining 48 or 40%.
And, given the sports’ professional longevity—16 franchises have existed since 1903 or earlier—no surprise that the five outliers comprise, primarily, recent additions.
Let’s look at the four who have played in the World Series but, not won a trophy.
Key: (Years active/Division titles/Post-season appearances/League championships won/World Series won)
Colorado Rockies (31/0/5/1/0)
Since sweeping Arizona in the NLCS to make their lone World Series appearance in 2007—where they were swept by the Red Sox—the Rockies have won only one post-season game in three subsequent appearances (2009 3-1 series loss to Philadelphia; 2017, lost wild card game to Arizona; 2018, lost wild card game to Chicago Cubs). Their 16% post-season appearance rate leans toward the lower end of the MLB curve and Colorado has never won the National League West in 31 seasons.Milwaukee Brewers (55/6/9/1/0)
Born as the infamous Seattle Pilots in 1969—see Ball Four—the Brewers have appeared in only one World Series in 55 seasons, losing to St. Louis in a memorable seven-game set in 1982. Whether in the National or American League, Milwaukee’s nine post-season dances (16% PSAP) have yet to yield an elusive World Series keg.San Diego Padres (55/5/7/2/0)
Two World Series appearances in 55 seasons—losing to Detroit in 1984 and to the Yankees in 1998—have failed to deliver the coveted first MLB crown to the border city. Does not help that the Padres 13% PSAP minimizes the opportunities for the Friars to swing for the fences.Tampa Bay Rays (26/4/9/2/0)
By far the most successful of the franchises without a World Series title, Tampa boasts a 35% PSAP (9 in 26 seasons). But, the Moneyball meets Elevated Analytics has not transformed into a World Series championship despite five consecutive post-season appearances and two World Series visits (2008, 2020).Now for MLB’s outlier.
Seattle Mariners (47/3/5/0/0)
Futility thy name is the Mariners. A triumphant return of MLB to the Emerald City in 1977 has not yielded one World Series appearance in 47 seasons despite a bevy of marquee talent (Randy Johnson, Edgar Martinez, Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Ichiro Suzuki)—the only franchise of the 30 active that has not been to the final dance.
THE OTHER 34% - NBA
Like the Rangers in MLB, the Denver Nuggets removed their name from the list of absent NBA Finals teams with a resounding triumph in 2023. That leaves ten franchises without a Larry O’Brien Trophy, including five that have never graced the Finals.
The oh-so-close five.
Key: (NBA Years active/Post-season appearances/Division titles/Finals Appearances/NBA Titles won)
Brooklyn Nets. (47/24/5/2/0)
Although the franchise won two ABA titles as the New York Nets (they began life as the New Jersey Americans in 1967) including the league’s final season in 1975-1976, the NBA journey has been a different story. In 24 post-season appearances, the Nets have been bounced from party 16 times in the first round. Two finals slots in 2001-2002 (swept by Lakers) and 2002-2003 (lost 4-2 to Spurs) have yet to yield the much coveted NBA title to complement their two ABA crowns.Indiana Pacers (47/27/9/1/0)
Indiana boasted the second best winning percentage in ABA history at .574 (Kentucky Colonels sprinted to .602) and won the most league championships with 3. But, in 47 seasons in the NBA, the Pacers have yet to capture the championship with their lone Finals’ appearance resulting in a 4-2 loss to the Lakers in 2000.Utah Jazz (49/31/11/2/0)
Despite featuring one of the most formidable tandems in league history (Karl Malone and John Stockton) and the 10th ranked post-season appearance percentage (62%), the transplanted New Orleans Jazz are still seeking that elusive first NBA title. The Jazz’ dropped their two finals slots to Chicago (4-2 in both series) in 1998 and 1999.Phoenix Suns (55/32/8/3/0)
No franchise in the 5 major professional leagues has spaced its finals appearances more than the Arizona NBA entry. 1975-1976: lost to Celtics, 4-2; 1992-1993: lost to Bulls, 4-2; 2020-2021; lost to Bucks, 4-2. And, no NBA franchise has appeared in more Finals without a victory. Ouch!Orlando Magic (34/16/6/2/0)
While the Magic may lack the longevity of the other four, the Florida franchise shares the futility. Two finals appearances, two defeats, only one game won. 1994-1995 lost to Rockets, 4-0, and 2008-2009, lost to Lakers, 4-1. Does not help the cause that their post-season appearance percentage is 22nd for the active 30 franchises at 46%. Gotta get there to challenge the status quo.
Now for the not-so-fabulous five.
Key: (NBA Years active/Post-season appearances/Division titles/Finals Appearances/NBA Titles won)
New Orleans Pelicans (21/9/1/0/0)
The NBA’s newest franchise has a low post-season appearance percentage (26th out of 30 at 41%) and has advanced past the first round only twice in 21 seasons. Not exactly a recipe for Larry O’Brien Trophy jambalaya.Memphis Grizzlies (28/13/2/0/0)
Whether on the United States or Canada side of the 49th parallel, the Grizzlies have not discovered the road map to the NBA Finals. Despite the best post-season appearance percentage of the not-so-fabulous five (46%), the former Vancouver entry has reached the conference finals only once, swept by the Spurs in 2003. That’s a long hibernation.Charlotte Hornets (33/10/0/0/0)
The lowest post-season appearance percentage of the active 30 NBA franchises (29%) and no division titles. Whether known as the Bobcats or Hornets, Charlotte lacks claws or sting to burst through the NBA Finals bubble.Minnesota Timberwolves (34/11/1/0/0)
No, the Timberwolves and the Hornets are not leading parallel lives. Just seems that way. Second lowest post-season appearance percentage (31%), only one division title, just 11 seasons at .500 or above. Might 2023-2024 be the year?Los Angeles Clippers (53/17/2/0/0)
Few franchises in professional sports have endured the challenges of this vagabond bunch. Whether in Buffalo as the Braves or down the road in San Diego, the Clippers have reached the conference finals only once in 53 seasons. Add to the frustration? The Clippers have finished above .500 for the last 12 seasons, including eight (six straight at one point) above .600! No Finals, no titles, ample frustration.
THE OTHER 34% - NHL
The NHL has a similar success ratio as the NFL when champions are measured. Until 1967, the NHL was a tidy six-team aggregation. In one of the most audacious moves in sports history, the league doubled its membership in a single expansion, adding the Los Angeles Kings, Minnesota North Stars, Oakland Seals, Philadelphia Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins, and St. Louis Blues. So, the NHL’s expansion era and the NFL’s Super Bowl era encompass the same time period.
Between 1924 and 1936, all Original Six franchises—Montreal Canadiens, Toronto Maple Leafs, Boston Bruins, Chicago Black Hawks, Detroit Red Wings, and New York Rangers—won at least one Stanley Cup. Overall, 21 of the current 32 franchises have lifted the prestigious silver. 11 (34%) have not. And, five have never reached the finals.
Now for the not so Original Six.
Key: (NHL Years active/Post-season appearances/Division titles/Stanley Cup Finals Appearances/NHL Titles won)
Nashville Predators (24/15/2/1/0)
The most recent expansion franchise on this list, Nashville’s only Stanley Cup finals appearance resulted in a 4-2 series loss to Pittsburgh in 2017. The Predators’ 60% post-season appearance ratio is 16th out of 32 and, despite 18 consecutive non-pandemic-shortened winning seasons, the Southern entry has yet to take a bite out of the cup.Florida Panthers (29/9/3/2/0)
Despite ranking 30th out of 32 teams in post-season appearance ratio (30%), the Panthers have reached the finals twice, swept in 1996 by Colorado and losing 4-1 to Vegas in 2023. Might this season be the breakthrough?Ottawa Senators (30/16/4/1/0)
In their fifth year of existence, the Senators journeyed on an eleven year post-season run, highlighted by a 2007 Stanley Cup Finals loss to Anaheim. Unfortunately, that was the highlight. Ottawa has missed the post-season the last six seasons.San Jose Sharks (31/21/6/1/0)
From the 1997-1998 season through the 2018-2019 campaign, the Sharks danced in the post-season 19 times in 21 opportunities. Only one Stanley Cup final: a 4-2 series loss to Pittsburgh in 2016. San Jose’s 66% post-season appearance percentage ranks 9th all-time and is the highest of those not so original six. Still waiting, though, for the first Silicon Stanley Cup.Buffalo Sabres (52/29/6/1/0)
After the initial expansive expansion of 1967, Buffalo joined the association in 1970. And, 52 years later, upstate New York club is still looking for that elusive initial Stanley Cup. 53% post-season appearance percentage ranks 22nd and only one Stanley Cup final, a series loss to Dallas in 1999. The Sabres’ last post-season appearance? 2012. Ouch!Vancouver Canucks (52/28/10/3/0)
Same year addition as Buffalo. Same 52-year futility. At least, the Canucks have three finals appearances—swept by the Islanders in 1982, edged by the Rangers, 4-3, in 1994, and turned back by Boston, 4-3, in 2011. Only two post-season dances in last 10 seasons. Double ouch!
Now for the not-so-furious five.
Key: (NHL Years active/Post-season appearances/Division titles/Stanley Cup Finals Appearances/NHL Titles won)
Seattle Kraken (2/1/0/0/0)
Mirroring the out of the gate success of Vegas, the NHL’s newest franchise enjoyed a winning record and a post-season appearance in season 2, losing to Dallas in the second round. Can the Kraken replicate the Golden Knights achievement of a Stanley Cup championship by season 6?Columbus Blue Jackets (22/6/0/0/0)
The Ohio entry enjoyed a flurry from the 2016-2017 through the 2019-2020 season, the four consecutive post-season appearances doubling their output in the first 15 seasons of existence. But, the Blue Jackets never advanced beyond the second round. Columbus’ post-season appearance percentage of 26% is the worst of all 32 franchises in the NHL. And, in only 8 of their 22 seasons have they compiled an above .500 points percentage. That can make a team blue.Minnesota Wild (22/13/1/0/0)
Compared to their expansion comrade Columbus, the Wild have ventured actively into the post-season forest. Yes, their 56% PSAP is a respectable 19th in the NHL. But, Minnesota has advanced beyond the second round only once, losing to the Avalanche in the Western Conference Finals in their third season. And, yes, the previous Minnesota NHL entry, the North Stars, never won a Stanley Cup in their 26 seasons before moving to Dallas in 1993.Winnipeg Jets (23/7/1/0/0)
31st in PSAP at 29%, including only 1 in 11 seasons as the Atlanta Thrashers before heading north. While the fortunes have improved with five post-season appearances in the last six seasons, still, no Stanley Cup Finals yet.Arizona Coyotes (43/20/1/0/0)
11 of 17 post-season appearances as the original Winnipeg Jets failed to merit a Stanley Cup Finals series. Upon locating to The Valley of the Sun in 1996, the rechristened Phoenix Coyotes lost in five of the next six conference quarter-finals. Since 2002, only four post-season appearances in 22 seasons. Throw in bankruptcy, poor attendance, relocations within the great Phoenix area, arena issues, lawsuits, relocation threats—this franchise is redefining dysfunctional.
THE OTHER 34% - MLS
15 of the current 29 MLS franchises (52%) have won the MLS Cup in the league’s 28 seasons. Two franchises—the LA Galaxy and DC United—have won 32% of the MLS Cups. Maybe, the other clubs should adopt two letter location designations.
4 clubs have appeared in the MLS Cup final without emerging with a victory. And, 10 MLS franchises have yet to appear in an MLS Cup final. Most of the bottom 10 are relatively newer franchises as the MLS has doubled in size since 2008 (14 to 29) after only increasing by a net 4 from its inaugural season in 1996 through 2008.
Key: (MLS Years active/Post-season appearances/Conference titles/MLS Cup Appearances/MLS Titles won)
Charlotte FC (2/1/0/0/0)
FC Cincinnati (5/2/1/0/0)
Inter Miami CF (4/2/0/0/0)
CF Montréal (12/5/0/0/0)
Nashville SC (4/4/0/0/0)
Orlando City SC (9/4/0/0/0)
Austin FC (3/1/0/0/0)
Minnesota United FC (7/4/0/0/0)
St. Louis City SC (1/1/1/0/0)
Vancouver Whitecaps (14/6/0/0/0)
4 have appeared in at least one MLS Cup final without a victory.
New York Red Bulls (28/24/6/1/0)
Whether taking the pitch as the MetroStars—with or without the unwieldy New York/New Jersey location designation—and despite the fact they are one of the original MLS entrants from 1996, the franchise has not charged through the MLS Cup gate. The Red Bulls only MLS Cup appearance resulted in a 3-1 loss to Columbus in 2008 at Home Depot Stadium in Carson, CA.FC Dallas (28/20/3/1/0)
Despite possessing the 8th best post-season appearance percentage (71%) overall, FC Dallas has stumbled in the playoffs, reaching only 1 MLS Cup Final in 20 post-season visits. That lone MLS Cup berth culminated in a 2-1 defeat at the feet of Colorado in 2010 at BMO Field in Toronto.Philadelphia Union (14/8/2/1/0)
After winning their second conference title in 2022, the Union advanced to the MLS Cup, where they lost on penalty kicks (3-0) after tying in regulation, 3-3, with LAFC at Banc of California Stadium in Los Angeles.New England Revolution (28/17/3/5/0)
The poster child of MLS Cup futility. Where the other three franchises have appeared in only one MLS Cup, the Revolution have crashed the party five times without a victory. 2002 (LA Galaxy 1-0), 2005 (LA Galaxy 1-0), 2006 (Houston 1-1, 4-3 PKs) , 2007 (Houston 2-1), and 2014 (LA Galaxy 2-1 extra time). Given the scores, the futility is dashed with a generous serving of heartbreak.Compared to the other 152 franchises across the five major professional sports, the post-season success of the 49ers is quite striking. Maybe, fans can appreciate just how difficult and special winning “the big one” really is.
“The overhead projector does not lie, people!”
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